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U.S. construction spending up on nonresidential

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

skyscrapercon2Construction spending rose 0.3% in March, boosted by spending on nonresidential buildings and on public works, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists were expecting a 1.5% decline. Spending in January and February was revised higher, which, all things equal, should lead to an upward revision to gross domestic product. Earlier reports had investments in non-residential structures falling at a record 44% annual pace in the first quarter. In March, spending on residential projects fell 4.2%. Spending on nonresidential construction projects rose 2.7% in March, while spending on public projects rose 1.1%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: MarketWatch

Latin America offshore industry remains active

Tuesday, April 7th, 2009

p51Latin America’s oil and gas market has remained relatively strong over the past year, despite the impact of ongoing financial problems worldwide. Demand for drillships and semisubmersibles has led to fleet utilization rates of around 100 percent, and Petrobras has busied itself with a number of offshore field development projects.

However, while the discovery of vast reserves in the pre-salt area of Brazil has helped drive activity for state company Petrobras, the company has had its share of problems, as has Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

Troubled Waters

Petrobras recently had to contend with a five-day strike by oil workers union Federação Única dos Petroleiros (FUP). FUP began the strike, which affected refineries and exploration and production units, after becoming unhappy with a profit-sharing scheme proposed by Petrobras, along with grievances that the company had not guaranteed protection against layoffs or adequately addressed concerns over safety issues. The workers previously went on strike in June 2008, demanding payment for time spent commuting to oil platforms.

The latest strike ended March 27 after Petrobras agreed to a substantial increase in the base level for its profit sharing, overtime payment for May Day, new meetings on employee safety and an assertion that job and benefit cuts were not planned. Petrobras also agreed not to harshly penalize workers who participated in the strike.

During the strike, Petrobras’ contingency teams took over operation of its platforms, and the company asserted that there was no interruption in oil and gas production.

Due to low oil prices, Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has had trouble making payments to drilling contractors and oilfield services companies since pushing out foreign operators and nationalizing its oil and gas industry. PDVSA has ordered gradual payment of all outstanding debts dating back to 2008, and started to renegotiate terms and conditions with rig owners and companies providing well services.

In one of the more dramatic moments related to payment problems, PDVSA subsidiary Petrosucre took over operations of Ensco International jackup ENSCO 69 in January. Ensco had suspended drilling operations due to a lack of payment in the region of US$35 million. Petrosucre employees resumed drilling operations under observation by Ensco supervisory rig personnel, claiming that Ensco had violated contract provisions giving it 30 days to resolve such issues. PDVSA and Ensco are now working on resolving payment issues while drilling continues.

PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez said that the company would be “breaking away from structures that provide goods and services through monopolies, in many sectors of the oil industry” and create new companies, organizations and production units that “contribute effectively to the construction of socialism is the beginning of a new stage in the revolutionary process.”

Discoveries
In September 2008, Anadarko Petroleum made a pre-salt discovery at the Wahoo prospect offshore Brazil in the Campos Basin. The 1-APL-1-ESS well is on Block BM-C-30 in around 4,650 feet (1,417.3 m) of water, southeast from Petrobras’ pre-salt discoveries at the Jubarte field. Results at Wahoo indicate 195 feet (59.3 m) of net pay with similar characteristics to the Jubarte 1-ESS-103A well, Brazil’s first producing pre-salt field, which achieved rates of 18,000 b/d of light oil. Anadarko plans to run a multi-zone drill stem test toward the middle of 2009 at Wahoo and anticipates drilling more wells on the block later in 2009.

In late January of this year, Petrobras found  traces of natural gas in Blocks BM-ES-5 and BCAM-40. BM-ES-5 is in the Espirito Santo Basin in around 196.8 feet (60 m) of water. Scorpion Offshore jackup Offshore Defender is drilling on the block. BCAM-40 is in the Camamu-Almada Basin in around 967.8 feet (295 m) of water.

ExxonMobil has notified Brazilian regulatory agency Agencia Nacional de Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis (ANP) of two hydrocarbon discoveries in block BM-S-22, a pre-salt block known as Azulao. The discoveries were made in 7,293 feet (2,223 m) of water using Seadrill drillship West Polaris.

Rig Demand
South America continues to dominate Latin American drilling activity, with the majority of the rigs in the region working offshore Brazil or Venezuela. There are currently 128 rigs of various types in South America, and at least four rigs that are planned or on order will be headed to the region as well.

Of the existing rigs, 91 are under contract. The majority of the rigs with no contract are cold stacked or out of service drill barges and tender barges in Venezuela.

Other rigs are en route to South America. Noble semisubmersible Noble Dave Beard, Transocean semisubmersible Sedco 706 and Seadrill semisubmersible West Eminence will all begin contracts with Petrobras before the end of the year. Ensco International jackup ENSCO 68 is heading to Venezuelan waters to begin a three-well contract with Chevron.

Demand in both regions is expected to grow, with the majority of the growth coming from the semisubmersible market, according to ODS-Petrodata’s World Rig Forecast Short Term Trends report. In South America, an increase in demand to 52 semisubmersibles is predicted, but some requirements are likely to remain unfilled. At present, 40 semisubmersibles are in South America, all in Brazil, and all mainly operated by Brazilian state energy company Petrobras. Aside from Aban Offshore semisubmersible Aban Pearl, which will begin a contract with Venezuela’s PDVSA towards the end of the month, the rest of the arriving semisubmersibles will be working offshore Brazil for Petrobras or OGX Petroleo.

Of the seven rigs in Central America and the Caribbean Sea, all are in Trinidad and Tobago, with three jackups, one semisubmersible and one platform rig working, one platform rig warm stacked and one jackup cold stacked. One of the working rigs, Maersk-managed semisubmersible Kan Tan IV, has been drilling for Canadian Superior, Challenger Energy and BG Group on the Intrepid block, but will soon be leaving the region for Australia.

Field Development
Petrobras has been busy installing new FPSOs and production platforms offshore Brazil, and on Feb. 25 managed to set a new daily oil production record of 2,012,654 barrels with the help of the new facilities.

In the last quarter of 2008, floating platform P-53 became the first production unit installed in the Marlim Leste field in the Campos Basin. The P-53 is capable of producing up to 180,000 barrels of heavy oil, 20 degrees API, and of compressing up to 211.88 MMcf/d. The platform’s oil production is offloaded by shuttle tankers with the assistance of autonomous repumping platform PRA-1 and floating storage and offloading vessel Cidade de Macaé. The P-53 is in waters of 3,543 feet (1,080 m).

In January 2009, semisubmersible platform P-51 began producing from Well MLS-99 in the Marlim Sul field in the Campos Basin. Installed 93 miles (150 km) offshore in 4,117 feet (1,255 m) of water, the platform is capable of producing up to 180,000 b/d of oil. P-51 is capable of compressing 211.8 MMcf of gas and has a water injection capacity of 282,000 b/d. P-51 is 410 feet (125 m) in length, 360.8 feet (110 m) wide, and weighs 48,000 tons.

Petrobras brought FPSO Cidade de Niterói online in February, also in the Marlim Leste field. Chartered to Modec, the FPSO is 75 miles (120 km) off the coast in 4,495 feet (1,370 m) of water. The FPSO is capable of producing 100,000 b/d of light, 28-degree API oil and 123.6 MMcf/d of gas.

Following these projects, Petrobras expects to bring FPSO Cidade de São Mateus and FPSO BW Peace online within the next six months. Chevron’s Frade FPSO should also begin producing from the Campos Basin by mid-2009.

A number of field development projects have been taking place offshore Trinidad & Tobago. A consortium between Fluor Corp. and J. Ray McDermott recently installed the Poinsettia production platform for BG Trinidad and Tobago. Gas is now flowing from the platform.

The platform, located in 530 feet (161 m) of water off the northwest shore of Trinidad, can produce as much as 350 MMcf/d of gas, which is transported via a 20-inch diameter pipeline to the existing BG Trinidad and Tobago Hibiscus platform before final pipeline transmission to shore.

In March, Trinidad Offshore Fabricators Unlimited (TOFCO) delivered the EOG Toucan Deck to EOG Resources. The deck, a conventional deck module with a structure designed to support a drill rig, gas processing system and manned operations, will be part of the EOG Toucan platform in 433 feet (132 m) of water, 43 miles (69 km) east of Trinidad.

Source: Energy Current

Lawsuits suspended in Trump Tower development

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

Donald Trump and Deutsche Bank Trust Cos. Americas shelve suits to try to settle differences.chicago-il745

Donald Trump and Deutsche Bank Trust Cos. Americas announced Tuesday that they have temporarily suspended lawsuits filed against each other four months ago over Trump International Hotel and Tower’s finances and will try to settle their differences out of court, a move designed to allay concerns of potential buyers who are jittery about the Tower’s future in a morose real estate market.

“It certainly didn’t help,” Trump said of the lawsuits. “Now this totally resolves questions in anybody’s mind.”

While the project has seen a recent uptick in sales, both sides agreed that sidelining the lawsuits that generated headlines nationally would assist in marketing the 92-story tower at 401 N. Wabash Ave. The skyscraper is likely to be the last new high-rise in Chicago for some time, and Trump has lamented for months that restrictions put on him by a consortium of lenders led by Deutsche have thwarted his efforts to sell units in the trophy building.

Trump and Deutsche filed suits against each other in November. Trump first sued Deutsche and other lenders in New York State Supreme Court in Queens, seeking to excuse a repayment of more than $330 million due Nov. 7 and extend the $640 million construction loan for an unspecified amount of time. In that suit, Trump claimed that the global economic crisis was a “once-in-a-lifetime credit tsunami” affecting his ability to sell units at the Tower and repay the loan. He also sought $3 billion in damages. >more

Construction Claims Assistance

Boston Properties Suspends $980 Million Skyscraper

Sunday, February 8th, 2009

 Boston Properties Inc., the biggest U.S. office landlord, plans to suspend construction on a $980 million midtown Manhattan skyscraper after a law firm abandoned plans to lease space there.

“Recently the law firm informed the company that it could not proceed on those terms, thereby rendering the project manhattaneconomically infeasible in today’s environment,” the Boston- based company said today in a statement. The 1 million square- foot tower at 250 West 55th St. and Eighth Avenue was scheduled for completion in 2011.

Office building owners are being battered by the U.S. recession, with the 14-member Bloomberg Office REIT Index losing 51 percent in the past year. Manhattan office vacancies rose to 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest since 2004, broker CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. said last month. Lending has also dried up as financial companies have taken more than $1 trillion of writedowns and credit-market losses.

“It has more to do with the state of financial markets than the merits of individual projects,” said Dan Fasulo, market analysis director at Real Capital Analytics Inc. in New York. “Lenders don’t want additional exposure to commercial real estate at this point. There’s nothing we can do about it but wait this out.”

Valuable Tower

A completed building on that site would have fetched $1,500 a square foot during the peak of the real estate market in 2007, Fasulo said. That would value the tower at $1.5 billion and made it one of the most expensive in the city, he said.

Boston Properties acquired some of the development rights for the West 55th Street site in May 2008 for about $34.2 million, according to company filings. It said it had invested $401.7 million in the project as of Sept. 30, 2008. It estimated its total investment would be $980 million, according to regulatory filings.

Boston Properties said today it expects to suspend its capital commitments by about $450 million through 2011 and is evaluating how the tower decision will affect earnings.

Last week the company said it had been negotiating with a top law firm and reached agreement. It didn’t name the firm.  >more

What Does House Democrats’ Stimulus Plan Mean for A/E/C Industry?

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

The $825-billion economic stimulus proposal that House Democrats unveiled yesterday provides the first solid numbers for those in the design and construction industry who have been searching anxiously for hints about the plan.

Infrastructure advocates panned the proposal as far short of what is needed. But with House committee and floor votes and Senate action still to come, the package is far from the last word on the stimulus.

As drafted, the plan calls for roughly $550 billion in spending and $275 billion in tax cuts over two years. The plan would have a major impact on construction: By Engineering News-Record’s calculation, about $135 billion of the spending portion of the plan would go toward construction. Additionally, construction firms would benefit from the plan’s tax incentives, which includes an extension of a provision that allows small companies to write off the costs of equipment and other capital purchases in the year those items are purchased.

One of the largest allocations in the package is $20 billion for upgrading educational facilities, including $14 billion for repairs to K-12 schools and $6 billion for higher education (community colleges, colleges, and universities). The plan also would provide $7.7 billion to the General Services Administration for construction, repairs, and operations of federal buildings. Of the $7.7 billion, $6 billion would go toward boosting energy conservation and energy efficiency in federal buildings. >more

Commercial construction outlook: Adapting to a new market

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Pat McCown and Brett Gordon point to their company’s Shawnee Justice Center project as proof that there is commercial building work to be found in the Midwest, even as the nation’s economy continues its freefall.

Kansas City, Mo.-based McCownGordon Construction completed the Justice Center project – a new municipal building housing the police station, fire station and courthouse complex in the city of Shawnee, Kansas – in just 17 months. That included both construction and design work.

Contractors built the center, which covers 29 acres in a campus-like setting, using the design/build construction method. Because all the contracting teams involved in the project were selected at the same time, the city was able to start construction of the building even while the interior finishes were still being designed, saving precious time.

“This project would have taken at least an additional four months – and that’s only if everything went right – if we had gone with an alternative design method,” said Arlen Kleinsorge, division manager with McCownGordon Construction.

Kleinsorge, along with other construction pros interviewed for this story, agreed that build-to-suit projects are becoming more popular among municipalities, especially as these municipalities seek ways to keep their budgets under control in tough economic times.

“More municipalities are looking for expedited delivery of their projects,” McCown said. “Going with the design/build method is one way for municipalities to move projects along quickly and save money. You get the best team in place to execute a project. You’re not working with companies who happened to be the low bidders and are only responsible for one portion of the project. In design/build, you’re working with a team dedicated to bringing the project in on time and on budget.”

The growing popularity of the design/build method of construction is just one trend that commercial construction professionals cited when looking at the state of their industry as 2008 nears its end. They also pointed to continued demand for new healthcare facilities and research-and-development centers as providing a boost to a commercial construction market that is in the midst of a slowdown.

Interviewees also had kind words for municipal public works projects as one other area of the commercial construction industry that continues to thrive.

But other sectors – retail, certainly, and industrial and office in many markets – are slowing down. This means that it’s those general contractors and developers who adapt to what is certainly a changing market are those who will survive the slump, developers said.

“When things were on a roll, everyone and their mothers were opening a construction company,” said Bill Plesich, director of marketing with Columbus, Ohio-based Renier Construction. “These more challenging times will weed out a lot of the weaker contractors. The ones who are financially set, who are able to adapt to current market conditions, are the ones who are still going to be here when the economy starts to improve again. It’s just like in the housing industry. The ones who weren’t financially secure have gone out of business already.”

Preparing for a tough 2009

Commercial construction work may have slowed in 2008. But industry experts worry that this year may only be the beginning of a long stretch of sluggish building activity.

Commercial developers interviewed for this story said that 2009 may prove to be a tough year for the industry. The commercial markets in the Midwest tend to react to economic woes anywhere from six to nine months after they hit. Because the nation’s economy is suffering now, it makes sense, then, that the region will see a significant slowdown in commercial construction next year.

Part of the challenge is that developers will continue to find it difficult to obtain financing for their projects, said R. Hank Bellina, director of the division of major accounts for St. Louis-based ARCO Construction.

Banks and lending institutions are already requiring more equity on all types of construction projects, Bellina said. They are also looking for projects that already have several tenants attached to them.

“There is no such thing as a slam dunk for financing anymore for construction projects,” Bellina said. “It doesn’t matter how great your credit rating is. There are no more slam dunks.”

Speculative projects are drying up, and will continue to do so in 2009, he said. At the same time, the number of new retail projects, industrial centers and warehouse distribution centers is steadily falling, Bellina said, something that will only intensify in 2009.

“A lot of those projects have been put on hold,” he said. “It doesn’t look great for 2009. There are a lot of sectors that are definitely slowing down.”

Bellina does see some good news, though. The demand for healthcare and medical facilities continues to grow, and should do so throughout 2009, he said. Midwest construction companies are being called upon to build more biotech research laboratories and the developments that spring up around them.

Senior-living facilities are becoming a mainstay in the commercial construction industry, Bellina said. And public-works and university-sponsored construction projects are also providing a boost to the industry, he said.

“The universities and the public sector have money. They don’t necessarily have to go out and acquire these more difficult-to-get loans and project-financing that a typical developer would have to get,” Bellina said. “That’s part of the reason that those markets are still active.”

Staying active

Woodridge, Ill.-based Morgan/Harbour Construction is one of those construction firms that is adapting. The company, which specializes in design/build projects, is currently developing a 120,000-square-foot two-story public works facility for the village of Wheeling, Ill.

The facility, which will sit on nearly 12 acres of land, is another example of both the public-works projects and design/build construction method that is now fueling building activity.

As Warren Seil, vice president with Morgan/Harbour, says, the Wheeling project is a true public-works project. The village will house its police, public-works department, engineering staff, vehicles and equipment and road-salt dump in the facility.

“They have everything covered there,” Seil said.

Greg Freehauf, vice president with Morgan/Harbour, said he expects to see municipalities continue to rely on the design/build method even more frequently in the coming months and years.

“Design/build for the most part has been popular in the private sector. But now we’re seeing more of it in the public sector,” Freehauf said. “It is attractive to both the builder and the public municipality because it gives you the advantage of fast-tracking a project and compressing its schedule. It gives you a better value for your dollar. Right now the private-sector work is slow. The public work is helping us maintain our construction volume.”

The village has been schedule-conscious throughout the process, Seil said. That’s why going with design/build, and the speed and flexibility that it allows, was so important, he said. The goal now, he said, is to complete the project by Jan. 31.

It’s a compressed timetable that never would have been possible with more traditional construction methods, Seil said.

“We don’t necessarily have to do all the drawings, put them out for pricing and then wait for responses,” Freehauf said. “We can go out for pricing on those items that do require a long lead time, the pre-cast and the steel, say, and get those in order so we can rush the schedule for both design and construction.”

Under traditional construction methods, the possibility of delays is high, Freehauf said. In the standard way of building, the owner of a project hires an architect and then puts those drawings out to bid. This very beginning stage of the process is a lengthy one itself, as it can take anywhere from a month to two months for the architecture team to draw the plans and about four more weeks for the bidding process to play out.

There could be early problems, too. What if the bids all come in too high? The design process has to start over again, costing more precious time.

This is avoided in the design/build method.

“In design/build, we are working with pricing much closer,” Seil said. “We can put together a budget much quicker. That’s what we did on this particular project, and it is paying off in a compressed construction schedule.”

William Birck, president of Chicago-based Reed Illinois Corporation, a general contractor and construction manager, says that his firm has relied upon a diverse pipeline of projects to ride out the construction slowdown so far.

Reed is doing what other survivors are doing: The company does not focus its efforts on one particular sector of the market. Instead, it tackles projects in all fields.

“We are strong believers in diversification,” Birck said. “We are active now in health care, in corporate construction and in institutional markets. We will even get involved in hospitality and retail projects. Of course, at this point in time those markets have slowed, it not stopped.”

And that’s the point. Reed is able to overcome the slowdown in the retail and hospitality businesses by focusing on the other areas of its practice that are doing well, such as healthcare and public-works projects. In fact, Reed is now involved in about a dozen hospital projects in the Chicago area, Birck said.

This focus on diversity has led Reed to have an active first two quarters of the year. Business has slowed in the third and fourth quarters, Birck said, but his company will still have a profitable and successful year.

“You have to always be looking for those markets that are doing well,” Birck said. “If you look at healthcare, you see that hospitals are driven by the demographics of the population. No one is getting any younger. Hospitals also benefit from the development of new technology. That’s a driver to more hospital work, too. As new technology comes in, hospitals have to embrace it.”

Several different projects have helped keep Reed busy during even these slow economic times.

“Our company has been through the Great Depression. We’ve been through two World Wars,” Birck said. “We’ve survived the recessions of the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s. What we’ve learned is that all you can do is maintain good relationships with your clients, and provide them with the best service you can. That is what has kept us going this long. It’s not exciting, but it works.”

Happy to be in the Midwest

When Paul Chuma reads the headlines that bemoan the state of the housing and construction industries across the country, he has one quick thought: “I’m glad I work in the Midwest.”

Chuma is president of Meridian Design Build in Deerfield, Ill. His company has seen the effects of the slowdown, of course. But it’s also staying active with several projects, including many that are renovations and adaptive re-uses, work that has remained steady in the Midwest.

“When the economy goes through its cycles, being in the middle of the country and in the Midwest seems to really help,” Chuma said. “We don’t experience the high highs or the low lows that other parts of the country experience. It definitely helps.”

That being said, Chuma isn’t denying that the construction industry is a bit sluggish these days, even in traditionally steady markets like Chicago.

“The velocity in the market has definitely declined,” he said. “There is definitely cause for concern, but there are opportunities out there for those companies that are willing to put forth the effort to figure out how to get a deal done.”

For Meridian, that involves tackling the company’s specialty, design/build projects. The company is now working on a 30,000-square-foot facility near the old stock yards area in Chicago for Gypsum Supply Co. and a 103,000-square-foot build-to-suit headquarters for Auto Truck Group in Bartlett, Ill.

“The big-box spec development has slowed,” Chuma said. “It hasn’t stopped entirely, but it certainly has significantly slowed. We’ve seen several developers who had planned projects that are sitting on the sidelines now. They may eventually happen, but now is not the time. Now it seems that the developers and the commercial brokers are focusing more on pursuing build-to-suit clients.”

Russ Henke, principle at Edwardsville, Ill.-based Contegra Construction, said that not all is gloom-and-doom in his industry. It’s impossible to predict when the commercial market will shake out of its doldrums, Henke said, but he’s looking for positive signs to start showing up as soon as the November presidential elections wrap up.

“We could definitely use some positive news,” Henke said. “There have been enough people waiting it out. I think people are looking for any reason to kick loose and move ahead. Look at it this way, owners are going to see in this coming fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year some of the best construction pricing from a materials and installation standpoint than they are going to see in a long time.

“There are still companies wanting and planning to grow,” he said. “That is the good news. There is nothing worse than the status quo. There are still market sectors that are strong. There are still opportunities on the horizon to take advantage of.”

Source:  RE Journals

Credit Crunch May Block 20% of Deep Oil Rigs, Slow Petrobras

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

As many as 20 of the 100 deepwater oil rigs on order worldwide may be delayed or canceled as loan availability erodes, possibly slowing developments including the biggest petroleum discovery in the Americas in three decades.

About half of the 20 rigs in question are rented for when they’re completed in two to three years — no longer enough to ensure financing for units that can cost $800 million to build, said Brian Uhlmer, an analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston. The drillers building those rigs are mostly fledgling contractors and may lack enough cash to satisfy lenders amid a global credit crunch, he said.

Norway’s Sevan Marine ASA has lost 70 percent of its value this month amid concern it won’t get financing for two drilling units. Houston-based Atwood Oceanics Inc. said Oct. 16 that it won’t exercise an option to build a deepwater rig at Jurong Shipyard Pte. Ltd. in Singapore. New rigs were being ordered to ease a shortage of deepwater gear needed to exploit offshore prospects like Brazil’s Tupi, announced in November by Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras.

“Petrobras would probably be the dominant oil and gas company that gets hit by this,” Uhlmer said.

Jose Sergio Gabrielli, chief executive officer at state- controlled Petrobras, said the Rio de Janeiro-based company may need to help find financing for some of its suppliers. “We are concerned about the supply chain of products for Petrobras,” Gabrielli told reporters at a conference in Houston last week. >more

Wall Street’s bloodletting: What does all this mean for Texas?

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Large tracts of Texas are underwater, submerged by Hurricane Ike, with damage estimates at $16 billion.

Much of Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, lacks power, shorting out the center of Texas’ energy industry. Nationally, Wall Street, oil, banking and housing are tempest-tossed, with Lehman Brothers adrift in bankruptcy.

So will the Texas economy be set back by these natural and financial disasters?

“There’s a bloodletting on Wall Street. Whatever the fallout is, we’ll feel it here,” said Bernard Weinstein, a University of North Texas economist.

“The sunshine, frankly, is that we’re in Texas,” Weinstein said. “Our economy statewide is pretty good.”

Said Cheryl Abbot, regional economist for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: “Everything is relative. Compared to other parts of the country, Texas was certainly doing better.”

North Texas and Houston led the nation in job growth over the last year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced at the end of August that the Metroplex led the nation in new nonfarm jobs over the past 12 months, with a 2.3 percent growth rate in July compared with the same month last year. Houston, which represents roughly a quarter of the state’s economy, and San Antonio grew 2.2 percent each.

The Gulf Coast’s oil infrastructure — rigs, pipelines, refineries — apparently ducked a worst-case hurricane scenario. Ray Perryman, a Waco-based economist, said Texas ports also escaped severe damage.

Crude oil prices fell $5.47 Monday to $95.71 per barrel, the lowest price since March. Weinstein predicted that prices will settle at somewhere between $80 and $100 per barrel in coming months.

“At $80 to $100, Texas does pretty well, ” Weinstein said, adding that energy-associated industries will also prosper. “We sell our expertise all over the planet.”

He also predicted that the price consumers pay at the gas pump should decline soon.

As for Ike, there’s probably a silver — or green — lining. Weinstein tracked the impact of Hurricane Katrina on Louisiana and found that it was hardly visible, at least on the national economic radar. And Ike was no Katrina.

“As serious as the hurricane was, it’s probably just a blip,” Weinstein said. “There could be $15 billion to $20 billion in new money flowing into Texas. The rebuilding process will be a tremendous stimulus to the economy, particularly since that money’s going to come from elsewhere . . . insurance from all over the world.”

Abbot concurred on the rebuilding benefit.

“Construction is going to continue to be a good driver along the coast,” even if it takes a while for rebuilding to begin, Abbot said. “People need to keep in mind: Houston will see increases in some individual employers.”

She noted that even if Texans who work in the energy business aren’t able to get to the office for a while, their companies will likely continue to pay them, since many are large multinationals.

Texas financial institutions have come through the housing crisis and credit crunch better than in other states. While local consumers are feeling the effects of tighter credit, community banks appear healthy.

“Our community banks are incredibly strong,” Perryman said. “None of them drank this Kool-Aid.”

But, Perryman said, don’t look for any major housing developments to crank up soon.

“It’s harder to get anything financed than it was a year ago, or two or three years ago,” Perryman said. “Everybody’s kind of nervous and on the sidelines right now.”

As for the long-term effects of the Wall Street meltdown, coupled with Ike?

“We won’t know those for a good period of time . . . several months,” said O. Homer Erekson, dean of Texas Christian University’s business school. “That by itself is destabilizing.”

Erekson remained confident in the U.S. economy’s resilience, despite the “extraordinary” Lehman Brothers failure and other recent Wall Street developments.

Meanwhile, Weinstein recalled the mid-1980s for historical perspective.

“We lost our banks, we lost our savings and loans,” he said. “There was blood running in the streets of Dallas and Houston. Three years later, there were more people working in Texas than in 1985.”

Source: Star Telegram

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